As I read about HP’s new Project Moonshot, which was covered extensively by the trade press, I wondered about the vendor’s strategic end game. Where was it going with this technology initiative, and does it have a realistic likelihood of meeting its objectives?
Those questions led me to consider how drastically the complexion of the IT industry has changed as cloud computing takes hold. Everything is in flux, advancing toward an ultimate galactic configuration that, in many respects, will be far different from what we’ve known previously.
What’s the Destination?
It seems to me that Project Moonshot, with its emphasis on a power-sipping and space-saving server architecture for web-scale processing, represents an effort by HP to re-establish a reputation for innovation and thought leadership in a burgeoning new market. But what, exactly, is the market HP has in mind?
Contrary to some of what I’ve seen written on the subject, HP doesn’t really have a serious chance of using this technology to wrest meaningful patronage from the behemoths of the cloud service-provider world. Google won’t be queuing up for these ARM-based, Calxeda-designed, HP-branded “micro servers.” Nor will Facebook or Microsoft. Amazon or Yahoo probably won’t be in the market for them, either.
The biggest of the big cloud providers are heading in a different direction, as evidenced by their aggressive patronage of open-source hardware initiatives that, when one really thinks about it, are designed to reduce their dependence on traditional vendors of server, storage, and networking hardware. They’re breaking that dependence — in some ways, they see it as taking back their data centers — for a variety of reasons, but their behavior is invariably motivated by their desire to significantly reduce operating expenditures on data-center infrastructure while freeing themselves to innovate on the fly.
When Customers Become Competitors
We’ve reached an inflection point where the largest cloud players — the Googles, the Facebooks, the Amazons, some of the major carriers who have given thought to such matters — have figured out that they can build their own hardware infrastructure, or order it off the shelf from ODMs, and get it to do everything they need it to do (they have relatively few revenue-generating applications to consider) at a lower operating cost than if they kept buying relatively feature-laden, more-expensive gear from hardware vendors.
As one might imagine, this represents a major business concern for the likes of HP, as well as for Cisco and others who’ve built a considerable business selling hardware at sustainable margins to customers in those markets. An added concern is that enterprise customers, starting with many SMBs, have begun transitioning their application workloads to cloud-service providers. The vendor problem, then, is not only that the cloud market is growing, but also that segments of the enterprise market are at risk.
Attempt to Reset Technology Agenda
The vendors recognize the problem, and they’re doing what they can to adapt to changing circumstances. If the biggest web-scale cloud providers are moving away from reliance on them, then hardware vendors must find buyers elsewhere. Scores of cloud service providers are not as big, or as specialized, or as resourceful as Google, Facebook, or Microsoft. Those companies might be considering the paths their bigger brethren have forged, with initiatives such as the Open Compute Project and OpenFlow (for computing and networking infrastructure, respectively), but perhaps they’re not entirely sold on those models or don’t think they’re quite right for their requirements just yet.
This represents an opportunity for vendors such as HP to reset the technology agenda, at least for these sorts of customers. Hence, Project Moonshot, which, while clearly ambitious, remains a work in progress consisting of the Redstone Server Development Platform, an HP Discovery Lab (the first one is in Houston), and HP Pathfinder, a program designed to create open standards and third-party technology support for the overall effort.
I’m not sure I understand who will buy the initial batch of HP’s “extreme low-power servers” based on Calxeda’s EnergyCore ARM server-on-a-chip processors. As I said before, and as an article at Ars Technica explains, those buyers are unlikely to be the masters of the cloud universe, for both technological and business reasons. For now, buyers might not even come from the constituency of smaller cloud providers
Friends Become Foes, Foes Become Friends (Sort Of)
But HP is positioning itself for that market and to be involved in those buying decisions relating to the energy-efficient system architectures. Its Project Moonshot also will embrace energy-efficient microprocessors from Intel and AMD.
Incidentally, what’s most interesting here is not that HP adopted an ARM-based chip architecture before opting for an Intel server chipset — though that does warrant notice — but that Project Moonshot has been devised not so much as to compete against other server vendors as it is meant to provide a rejoinder to an open-computing model advanced by Facebook and others.
Just a short time ago, industry dynamics were relatively easy to discern. Hardware and system vendors competed against one another for the patronage of service providers and enterprises. Now, as cloud computing grows and its business model gains ascendance, hardware vendors also find themselves competing against a new threat represented by mammoth cloud service providers and their cost-saving DIY ethos.