Dell: Brocade and CommVault Rumors Redux

 
Dell is sitting on more than $15 billion in cash and investments, and we should expect that the diversifying computer mainstay will tap that money in pursuit of further acquisitions in 2011.

Brocade: A Reasonable Target for Dell

I have heard repeatedly that Dell wants to make a networking acquisition. The most logical target, given Dell’s increased storage profile in recent years, is Brocade Communications. Dell already resells Brocade’s Fiber Channel SAN switches, and Brocade’s technology plays well with Dell’s earlier acquisition of Compellent Technologies. An acquisition of Brocade would boost Dell’s margins, allowing it to become a vendor, rather than a reseller, of SAN switches.

There’s considerable logic supporting a Dell acquisition of Brocade, but there are some reasons to think it won’t happen, too. Brocade has a current market capitalization of about $3.15 billion, and it’s not unthinkable Dell would have to offer at least $4 billion to seal a deal.

Big Deal, Big Risks

The larger the deal, the bigger the risk that integration and assimilation won’t go smoothly. Dell would prefer smaller, digestible deals, and Brocade could result in acquisitive indigestion. Additionally, even though there’s technological logic underlying a potential Dell bid for Brocade, the market and channel profiles of the two companies are not perfectly aligned and could result in post-merger complications.

Furthermore, recent indications within Brocade suggest a sale of the company isn’t necessarily imminent. Its now-former CFO, Richard Deranleau, left the company recently to “pursue other interests.”  Seemingly knowledgeable observers believe Deranleau would have stuck around if a deal for the company had been in the works.

Let’s also remember that Brocade isn’t exactly a new focus of takeout rumors. Every few months, if not more frequently, Brocade is said to be on the block or on the cusp of an impending acquisition. Those deals did not develop, and it’s possible the latest flurry of Dell rumors will fall into the same uneventful bucket.

OEM Entanglements

One reason Brocade might have remained on the shelf, to speak, might involve the nature of its OEM agreements with vendors that include not only Dell but also IBM, HP, EMC, Oracle, Hitachi, Fujitsu, among others. It’s top three OEM resellers — HP, IBM, and EMC — account for about half the company’s revenue.

It’s reasonable to assume that those companies might have included language in their OEM contracts with Brocade that protect themselves and their customers from potentially injurious consequences resulting from Brocade being merged with or acquired by another vendor. Citi analyst John Slack is among those who have contended that Brocade’s existing OEM agreements might cause difficulties for a buyer of the company.

That said, as mentioned above, Brocade would be a reasonable addition to Dell’s storage-centric strategic buildout. It makes sense technologically, and could happen, but that doesn’t mean it will.

CommVault Rumors Return

Meanwhile, CommVault has been perennially rumored to be a Dell acquisition target. Again, it’s a plausible scenario. Dell is a major reseller of CommVault’s Simpana data-management software, accounting for 23 percent of the company’s revenue. Just as in the case of Brocade, Dell could improve its margins significantly by directly selling those products to its channel partners and customers rather than functioning as a reseller.

But the rumor about Dell acquiring CommVault has circulated, quite literally, for years. If Dell wanted to lock up CommVault, it could have done so before now, at a price more favorable than CommVault’s current market capitalization of more than $2 billion. (And, in any deal that might transpire, CommVault would negotiate a significant premium over its current market cap.)

Unless, of course, CommVault wasn’t open to acquisition proposals. Some contend CommVault will be even less amenable to acquisition now that it has struck a potentially lucrative OEM deal with NetApp. If Dell finally wishes to consummate a deal with CommVault, it might be forced to pay a relatively hefty price.

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