Category Archives: Ericsson

Still Early Days in SDN Ecosystem

Jason Edelman has provided a helpful overview of the software-defined networking (SDN) ecosystem and the vendors currently active within it. Like any form chart, though, it’s a snapshot in time, and therefore subject to change, as I’m sure Edelman would concede.

Still, what Edelman has delivered is a useful contextual framework to understand where many vendors stand today, where “stealth” vendors might attempt to make their marks shortly, and where and how the overall space might evolve.

Edelman presents the somewhat-known entities — Nicira, Big Switch, NEC, and Embrane (L4-7) at the applications/services layer — and he also addresses  vendors providing controllers, where no one platform has gained an appreciable commercial advantage because the market remains nascent.  He also covers the “switch infrastructure” vendors, which include HP Networking, Netgear, IBM, Pica8, NEC, Arista, Juniper, and others. (In a value-based analysis of the SDN market, “switch infrastructure” is the least interesting layer, but it is essential to have an abundance of interoperable hardware on the market.)

Cards Still to be Played

The real battle, from which it might take considerable time for clears winners to emerge, will occur at the two upper layers, where controller vendors will be looking to win the patronage of purveyors of applications and services. At the moment, the picture is fuzzy. It remains possible that an eventual winner of the inevitable controller-market shakeout has yet to enter the frame.

In that regard, look for established networking players and new entrants to make some noise in the year ahead. Edelman has listed many of them, and I’ve heard that a few more are lurking in the shadows. Names that  are likely to be in the news soon include Plexxi, LineRate Systems (another L4-7 player, it seems), and Ericsson (with its OpenFlow/MPLS effort).

These are, as the saying goes, early days.

At NSN, Nokia and Siemens Still Grope for Exit

Let’s say two companies are involved in a joint venture that’s been an unhappy marriage. The relationship isn’t as toxic as the former partnership between Mel Gibson and Oksana Grigorieva, but it hasn’t been a day at the beach, either. Neither partner wants to remain in the business alliance; they’re both looking for a dignified exit.

With logic and reason as your guides, what would you expect their next moves to be?

Yes, one partner might approach the other, looking to sell its interest in full. It’s also possible that one company might sell its interest to an approved third party, offering a right of first refusal to its JV partner. It’s also conceivable that both partners would put the joint venture on the block, hiring an agent to discreet present it to private-equity shops and strategic buyers. They might even consider putting some lipstick on the pig and trying an IPO, hoping to benefit from auspicious timing and favorable lighting.

Okay, now throw logic and reason to the wind. What would you do now?

Maybe, as Nokia and Siemens have done at Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN), you’d compound the unhappy union by acquiring a floundering telecommunications-equipment business from a vendor eager to unload it. Misery loves company, after all, so why not plunge headlong into the pit of despair? If you put on your absurdist bifocals, the move just might make sense on a surreal existential level. But we’re talking business, not Dadaism.

Just when I think there’s nothing in this crazy industry that can surprise me, something does just that. I admit, I’ve been puzzling over why NSN would buy Motorola’s networks business, which retains some wireless-operator customers, especially in North America, but also carries hefty baggage in the form of a product portfolio predicated on technologies (a large portion of its 3G gear, and its WiMAX 4G offerings) that have gone out of fashion. NSN will pay $1.2 billion for the Motorola unit, and — other than some modest scale and a minor ostensible market-share gain — I don’t see how it derives much benefit from the transaction.

Squeezed from all angles, from traditional competitors Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent and from hard-charging Huawei — when it’s not fighting an intellectual-property lawsuit launched by, of all vendors, Motorola — NSN isn’t a thriving business. As I have mentioned previously, its joint-venture partners have taken massive goodwill writedowns since forming the business back in 2007.

Digressing for a moment, I want to note that I am not a proponent of joint ventures. Many European companies seem favorably disposed to them, and I understand the underlying reasoning behind them: pool resources, share and mitigate risk, eliminate distraction to one’s core business. Unfortunately, they’re usually unworkable in practice. It’s hard enough getting people from the same company to agree on strategy and to execute successfully. When you have the political machinations inherent in a joint venture, well, the job becomes nearly impossible.

Getting back on track after that brief digressive detour, NSN is in a tough spot.

How tough became clear to me after I read an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday. Neither Nokia nor Siemens wants to continue participating in the joint venture, but they can’t find a way out. It’s as if Jean-Paul Sartre has rewritten No Exit and staged it in a boardroom. Hell is having to deal with other people in a joint venture.

Components Shortages Affecting Vendors Worldwide

At the moment, components shortages seem to be pervasive in the technology industry. Vendors large and small, throughout most of the world, have been affected by them to greater or lesser degrees.

The problem appears to be with us for a while. To be best of my knowledge — and I will concede at the outset that my research hasn’t been definitive — vendors everywhere in the world are having difficulty sourcing adequate numbers of many types of components. The only exception is China, where vendors in telecommunications, cleantech, and other fields have not reported that same component-sourcing difficulties that have hobbled their counterparts in Europe, North America, and other parts of Asia.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Chinese companies aren’t affected by components shortages. All it means is that they haven’t reported them, at least in the English-speaking media I’ve perused. Still, it’s a development that bears watching. In that China does not ascribe to the tenets of unfettered capitalism, it sometimes operates according to a unique set of rules.

Today’s component shortages span various semiconductor types, including but not limited to DSPs, FETs, diodes, and amplifiers. Vendors of solar inverters, particularly those based in Europe, also have been affected.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that a shortage of basic electrical components could last into the second half of 2011, limiting the ability of telecommunications-equipment manufacturers to respond to improving market demand.

Reuters reports that memory chips and other fundamental components such as resistors and capacitors are in short supply after their makers slashed output, fired staff, put equipment purchases on hold or went out of business during the recession.
The shortages already have been blamed for weaker-than-expected results last quarter at telecommunications-equipement vendors Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson, which really don’t need the added grief.

Alcatel-Lucent blamed components shortages for a large loss that it posted in its first fiscal quarter. Alcatel-Lucent’s CEO Ben Verwaayen said the said the shortages involved “everyday” low-cost components. He explained that most components come from China, where the manufacturing industry hasn’t been revamped since major cuts that followed the severe global downturn. 

We already know that the supply-chain issues that afflicted Cisco’s channel partners and customers were blamed partly on component shortages.
What’s more, Dell partly blamed shortages and higher costs of components, including memory, for its inability to maintain gross margins during its just-reported quarter.

And AU Optronics, Taiwan’s second-ranked LCD manufacturer and a supplier to Dell and Sony, reported that an LCD panel shortage is likely to last into the second half of this year.

By no means are those the only vendors affected. You only have read the recent 10-Qs or conference-call transcripts of companies involved in computer networking, telecommunications gear, personal computers, smartphones, displays, or cleantech hardware to understand that components shortages are nearly everywhere.

I just wonder — and I make no accusation in doing so — whether Chinese manufacturers are as affected by the shortages as are their competitors in other parts of the world.

What’s Behind Microsoft’s Patent-Licensing Deal with HTC?

Jared Newman of PC World expounds on two possible scenarios behind Microsoft’s agreement to license unspecified patents to handset vendor HTC for use with that company’s Android-based smartphones.

Quoting directly from Newman’s article:

Here are two possible scenarios behind the HTC-Microsoft agreement:

The first is a conservative view. HTC’s phones may infringe on Microsoft patents. Rather than engage in two legal battles at once, HTC quickly agreed to license Microsoft’s patents before Redmond went after it. This spares HTC from another attack in court, while giving Microsoft a sort of insurance plan on HTC’s increasingly popular Android phones along with securing royalties.

The second possibility is more intriguing. Microsoft is throwing HTC a life preserver, letting the phone maker use Microsoft patents as a way to fend off Apple and its iPhone. I see it as an escape plan if HTC’s case against Apple goes south. If the possibility of a court-ordered injunction against HTC Android phones becomes real, HTC could simply say it’s using Microsoft’s patents instead, adjusting the design of its phones accordingly. This assumes that there’s overlap between Apple’s and Microsoft’s smartphone patents, and we don’t know because Microsoft didn’t get into details.

There is a third scenario, though, and it was mentioned in an IDG News Service item that quoted Francisco Jeronimo, an IDC research manager. To wit:

The fact that HTC, Samsung and Sony Ericsson also make Windows phones may make any discussions with Microsoft easier to resolve, according to Francisco Jeronimo, research manager at IDC. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if the vendors can get discounts related to how they are going to push devices based on Windows Phone 7.

Indeed, I think we have a winner.

While HTC can expect no mercy from Apple and its patent lawyers regarding alleged infringements occasioned by the former’s Google Android handsets, Microsoft is a different beast entirely. As I’ve said before, Google stands to make its mobile-platform gains at Microsoft’s expense, not at Apple’s. That’s because Google and Microsoft both count on patronage from handset vendors that license their mobile operating systems. Apple, as a vertically integrated player (providing operating system, handset, and online applications and content) doesn’t need handset vendors. It is its own handset vendor.

Consequently, Microsoft and Google are direct mobile competitors in a way that neither competes against Apple. In the battle between Microsoft and Google for the affections of handset vendors, it’s a zero-sum game. If a handset vendor, such as Motorola, defects from Microsoft to the Google camp, that’s lost business for Microsoft, and a lost service conduit to consumers.

What’s Microsoft to do? Some of the handset vendors — HTC, Samsung, Sony Ericsson — are hedging their bets, with feet in both camps. Microsoft wants to keep their business. To do so, it will be inclined to use every instrument and mechanism at its disposal, carrots and sticks. The threat of patent-infringement lawsuits might be a compelling stick to wield, just as sweet deals on patent licensing, with certain strings attached, might represent a tasty carrot.

It isn’t difficult to envision a Microsoft negotiating team making the following pitch to HTC: “You’re infringing on our patents with those Android-based handsets, and we intend to rectify the situation. Rather than pursue litigation that nobody wants, we’re willing to give you a great licensing deal . . . on the condition that you continue to develop and effectively market Microsoft-based handsets. What do you think?”

That’s the basic outline, anyway. The specifics of the deal might look a little different, but the essential idea is that Microsoft uses patents and litigation as bargaining chips to keep handset vendors in the Windows Phone 7 Series stable.

IBM-Johnson Controls Partnership Signals New Automation Wave

As Internet protocol proliferates, pervading every device that can possibly be networked, automated solutions are reaching into new realms and exploring untapped possibilities.

They’re also providing a dynamic foundation for new technology partnerships. One such partnership, which includes a smart-grid aspect, involves IBM and Johnson Controls.

The two companies are combining forces to improve the energy efficiency of office buildings and other commercial and industrial facilities. They’ll achieve that result by integrating IBM’s business-analytics software and middleware with Johnson’s building control technology. The objective is to deliver an automated system that will automatically turn off lights in unoccupied rooms or buildings, identify areas of heat loss, and shut off and turn on HVAC systems as required.

IBM and Johnson Controls worked together previously to deliver energy-efficiency solutions for the data center. As a result of those customer engagements and others, they realized more was possible.

Clay Nesler, Johnson Controls’ VP for Global Energy and Sustainability, explained how the partnership evolved:

“These capabilities have been available for a long time, but they haven’t been widely applied . . . . Both organizations are committed to open standards and Web technologies. So while this would have required a lot of engineering and R&D work several years ago, we now hope to leverage as many standards as possible,”

That’s the key: Standards are facilitating the development and delivery of automated-management solutions, including many of those applicable to the smart gird, that were too cumbersome, too unwieldy, too ocustomized (and therefore too expensive) in the past.

This is why the networked machine-to-machine (M2M) market is seen to offer so much promise, not just for IBM and Johnson Controls, but for every major information-vendor that has its eyes open and its skin in the game. Think of Intel, which can provide chips for the embedded devices; Cisco and its network infrastructure; Oracle with its analytics applications and databases; Dell with its servers; Ericsson with its wireless-networking technologies. Also consider the new business possibilities for wireless operators worldwide.

It’s a huge opportunity, and the smart grid, broadly defined, is a big piece of it. Technology vendors have a correspondingly large stake in ensuring that it is done right. Expect them to become active and involved partners with utilities, regulators, and governments.

Nortel Ponders Fate of LTE Patents

Not much remains of the once-proud Nortel Networks, but it retains a portfolio of 4,000 LTE and other wireless patents that have market value of as much as $1 billion, according to analyst estimates.

For a time, Nortel considered keeping the patents. Some within the disintegrating, insolvent company envisioned that it could be recast as a patent troll, staffed with more lawyers than engineers, punitively pursuing companies perceived to have encroached on its intellectual-property rights.

It still might choose that option, but other possibilities loom.

According to report in the Globe and Mail, Nortel is “exploring strategic alternatives to maximize the value” of the patents. The company has yet to decide how it will dispose of the patents, but alternatives apparently include an auction of the patents, a joint venture with a new partner, or long-term licensing agreements with wireless companies. That last option is a euphemism for becoming a patent troll.

What remains of the Nortel braintrust might be disinclined to auction the patents, but the Globe and Mail says the company faces mounting pressure from anxious creditors, suppliers, and pensioners who want all the assets divested.

While Nokia Corp. and Telefon AB LM Ericsson are said to have privately expressed interest in acquiring the patents, RIM bears watching in this context. Nortel’s LTE patents were and are of great interest to the BlackBerry purveyor.

Unlike the other potential acquirers, RIM can play the Canadian card to put pressure on the country’s federal government, arguing that such forward-looking intellectual property should remain in Canadian hands.

Just when we thought all the juice had been squeezed from the Nortel lemon, there might be one last lemonade sale.

Dell’Oro Forecasts Growth in Chinese Wireless-Infrastructure Spending in 2010

Primarily as a result of a decrease in 3G deployments in China, the worldwide market for wireless-network infrastructure declined 10 percent in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to market researcher Dell’Oro.

Said Dell’Oro in a statement quoted by Reuters:

“While 3G spending in China is expected to stay depressed for the remainder of this year … heavy spending by China Unicom and China Telecom is expected to resume in 2010, and will be a prime contributor to both the WCDMA and CDMA markets.”

In this year’s third quarter, the market was worth $9 billion in revenue. As reported by FierceWireless, Ericsson’s share of the market remained steady, but Huawei gained share on Nokia Siemens Networks. Recently, Alcatel-Lucent won contracts worth approximately $1.7 billion to provide network upgrades, infrastructure, and services for China Mobile and China Telecom.

As in many other industries, telecommunications-equipment vendors seeking revenue growth will have to go to China to find it.